Avoiding the hot hand fallacy

Having a ‘hot hand’ was a term that originated in basketball where players who hit a succession of successful shots were expected to keep doing so.

But of course, there’s no such thing, as researchers Gillovich, Vallone and Tversky found in their study in 1985. They found that each shot was independent, with the outcome not influenced by the previous attempts.

Yet the hot hand fallacy - as a bias - is still rife in business where leaders assume that the strategies, culture, approaches, systems and behaviours that brought them success last year, will do likewise this year. In my experience, this is a result of overconfidence rather than arrogance. It’s only natural to assume that because something has worked once or twice before, it will do so again.

It’s fair to say that the same approaches may get you some of the way there, but to achieve new goals or targets, then a different approach will be required, in line with the conditions you find yourself in today.

It doesn’t have to be completely fresh and new - data and learnings from previous successes are the best lessons - however, new perspectives and ideas should be sought from different people on how the strategy, approach or culture needs evolve to ensure that your hot hands (and the complacency it generates) don’t get in the way of success.